By Nadia Ntiamoah
The economy is projected to record stronger growth in 2026 as the African Development Bank (AfDB) forecasts a 5 percent expansion, signaling renewed optimism about the country’s macroeconomic recovery following years of economic turbulence, debt restructuring, inflationary pressures and fiscal instability.
According to the AfDB’s 2026 African Economic Outlook Report, Ghana is expected to outperform earlier projections by major international financial institutions including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, both of which had estimated the country’s growth rate at 4.8 percent.
The latest AfDB forecast further predicts that Ghana’s economy will strengthen to 5.4 percent in 2027, placing the country among the better-performing economies within the West African sub-region.
The report comes at a time Ghana is gradually recovering from one of its most difficult economic periods in recent history. Over the past few years, the country battled soaring inflation, rapid cedi depreciation, rising public debt, energy sector challenges and a slowdown in investor confidence, forcing government to seek support from the International Monetary Fund under a multi-billion-dollar economic recovery programme.
Despite these challenges, the AfDB believes the economy is showing signs of resilience, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, stronger fiscal management and stabilisation efforts being implemented by government and the Bank of Ghana.
The report projected that inflation would decline significantly to around 9 percent by the end of 2026, a major improvement compared to the high inflationary levels experienced during the peak of the economic crisis.
The Bank also projected a gradual reduction in Ghana’s fiscal deficit, estimating that the budget deficit would narrow from 2.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 to 2.2 percent in 2027. Analysts say this reflects expectations that government will continue implementing tighter expenditure controls, improved revenue mobilisation and fiscal discipline aimed at restoring confidence in the economy.
On the external front, the AfDB indicated that Ghana is expected to maintain a relatively strong current account surplus of 3 percent of GDP in 2026 before slightly moderating to 2.7 percent in 2027. This, according to the report, highlights growing resilience in the country’s external sector despite prevailing global economic uncertainties and volatile commodity markets.
The AfDB attributed the expected growth across West Africa to increased agricultural productivity, expanding agro-processing industries and sustained investments in infrastructure, transport and energy projects. The regional economy is projected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2026.
However, the report cautioned that African economies, including Ghana, still face significant risks capable of slowing growth. Among the concerns raised were escalating geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil and fertilizer prices, supply chain disruptions and the vulnerability of African economies to external economic shocks.
The African Development Bank further urged African governments to intensify domestic revenue mobilisation efforts, deepen regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and strengthen fiscal governance systems to reduce dependence on external borrowing and improve long-term economic resilience.
Economic analysts say the latest AfDB projections may boost investor confidence in Ghana’s economy, particularly at a time when government is pursuing economic recovery programmes aimed at restoring stability, rebuilding reserves and reviving private sector growth.
The report is also likely to fuel debate about whether the recent economic reforms, including monetary tightening measures by the Bank of Ghana and ongoing IMF-backed fiscal adjustments, are beginning to yield the desired results.and semi-finished products rather than raw commodities.
