–BY Daniel Bampoe
Months after the 2024 general elections that saw the New Patriotic Party (NPP) losing power, a new survey conducted by the Africa Policy Lens (APL) has brought renewed hope to the party’s base, positioning Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the leading political figure ahead of the 2028 elections.
The former Vice President and 2024 presidential candidate appears to have retained significant public support, cementing his role as a key figure in the NPP’s rebuilding strategy.
Post-Defeat Momentum
The APL survey presents Dr. Bawumia not as a defeated candidate, but as a frontrunner with considerable influence within his party and among the broader Ghanaian electorate.
Despite the NPP’s loss in 2024, Mahamudu Bawumia is reportedly viewed as the most viable leader to restore the party’s electoral fortunes.
The survey, which gathered opinions across all 16 regions of Ghana, shows that Bawumia has not only retained his core base but also expanded his appeal.
According to the survey, 52% of NPP-aligned respondents would vote for Bawumia if party primaries were held today—an impressive lead over his closest rival, outspoken Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong, who received 36%.
This internal dominance reflects lingering loyalty and confidence in Bawumia’s leadership credentials, political composure, and technocratic approach.
Two-Man Race
Though Dr Mahamudu Bawumia leads, the race is shaping up as a clear two-man contest between him and Kennedy Agyapong.
While the Vice President’s appeal stems from experience and statesmanship, Agyapong’s popularity rides on anti-establishment rhetoric and a brash style that resonates with some segments of the electorate.
Interestingly, the survey indicates that nearly half (48.4%) of NDC supporters would prefer Ken Agyapong as NPP flagbearer, possibly reflecting a tactical preference for a candidate perceived as less challenging in a national contest.
This suggests that even within the opposition, Bawumia is seen as the more formidable force and a threat to the ruling party.
Regional Dynamics
Perhaps most telling in the APL findings is Bawumia’s broad regional reach.
The former Vice President leads in 12 out of the country’s 16 regions, including strongholds like Ashanti, Eastern, and swing areas such as Greater Accra.
His appeal also stretches deeply into northern Ghana—his home base—where he remains influential across Northern, North East, and Upper West regions.
This northern support is particularly notable. Even among self-identified NDC voters in these regions, Bawumia emerges as the preferred NPP candidate, showcasing rare cross-party appeal.
His religious and ethnic identity as a Muslim and a northerner could be pivotal in countering the NDC’s traditional dominance in the north.
Ken Agyapong, meanwhile, commands regional strength in the Central Region—his political turf—as well as surprising traction in Volta and Western North, regions typically aligned with the NDC.
A tie between the two men was recorded in Ahafo. Kennedy Agyapong’s rise in traditionally opposition-held regions may stem from a protest sentiment within the electorate.
Party Loyalty
The survey provides insight into party allegiances. Among declared NPP supporters, Bawumia has the backing of over 70%, a reflection of deep-rooted loyalty.
His long service as Vice President and involvement in key government policies appear to have reinforced trust within the party.
On the national scale, if elections were held today, 35.8% of respondents say they would vote for Bawumia—nearly double the 19.8% support expressed for the likely NDC candidate, Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang. Other figures like Kennedy Agyapong (12.1%) and NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah (10.1%) trail significantly.
However, a crucial data point is that 69% of respondents identified as undecided.
This massive undecided bloc underscores a fluid political landscape and highlights that while Bawumia leads, the outcome of the 2028 race remains far from certain.
The Challenge Ahead
Despite Bawumia’s strong position, the road to 2028 is lined with challenges.
The Volta, Oti, and parts of the Western North regions remain solid NDC territory.
For Bawumia to translate his survey lead into electoral victory, he must intensify engagement in these areas, offering tangible policy alternatives and addressing local developmental concerns.
Additionally, with internal party unity critical to electoral success, Bawumia’s camp may need to reach out to Agyapong’s support base. The possibility of integrating elements of Agyapong’s populist and anti-corruption messaging could strengthen the NPP’s appeal, especially among undecided and youth voters.
Conclusion: Early Advantage, Strategic Uncertainty
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia may have lost the 2024 presidential contest, but his political career is far from over. The APL survey reaffirms him as a leading political figure and positions him as the man to beat in the 2028 elections—both within the NPP and nationally.
His broad support across regions and parties makes him a uniquely placed candidate in Ghana’s evolving political terrain. Still, the high number of undecided voters, the persistent strength of the NDC in certain regions, and the internal dynamics of the NPP suggest that the next few years will be pivotal.
For now, Bawumia stands in front—but whether he will carry the day in 2028 depends on what both he and the NPP do next.
