By Daniel Bampoe
As the New Patriotic Party (NPP) goes to the polls tomorrow, Saturday, January 31, 2026, to elect a new presidential candidate, the contest has evolved beyond a routine internal party race.
It has become one of the most closely watched political battles in the Fourth Republic, shaped by scientific polling projections, spiritual prophecies, deep party history, and the urgent question of who can lead the NPP back to power in the 2028 general elections.
At the heart of the contest is former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who is widely tipped by multiple surveys as the man to beat in the party’s flagbearership race.
Yet, the election is also unfolding against the backdrop of fierce competition from businessman and former Assin Central MP Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, former Food and Agriculture Minister Dr. Bryan Acheampong, Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, and former NPP General Secretary Ing. Kwabena Agyei Agyepong.
With over 210,000 delegates gathering across all constituencies to cast their ballots, tomorrow’s decision is expected to determine not only the party’s next flagbearer but also its future direction after the bruising defeat of 2024.
A Party At A Crossroads After 2024 Defeat
The stakes of this primary are unusually high because it comes after the NPP’s dramatic loss in the 2024 general elections, when the party lost both the presidency and significant parliamentary ground after eight years in government.
Many analysts have argued that the 2024 outcome reflected broad voter frustration over economic hardship, rising taxes, unemployment pressures, and unpopular fiscal measures such as the E-Levy.
The party’s defeat was widely interpreted as a rejection of the administration rather than merely a rejection of its presidential candidate.
Yet, even in that difficult political climate, Dr. Bawumia secured nearly five million votes — officially 4,877,611 valid votes, representing 41.75% of the national total.
Supporters insist that this performance, achieved during what many describe as one of the most unpopular periods of an incumbent government, demonstrates that Bawumia remains the party’s most viable national figure heading into 2028.
Polls Place Bawumia Ahead
In the final days leading up to Saturday’s vote, at least four major survey institutions have published findings projecting a clear advantage for Dr. Bawumia.
The most prominent of these is Global InfoAnalytics, which on Friday, January 23, 2026 released a final predictive model indicating that Dr. Bawumia is heading toward a commanding 57% one-touch victory, ahead of Kennedy Agyapong at 28%, Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 13%, and Dr. Adutwum at 2%.
The Global InfoAnalytics poll, conducted between December 29, 2025 and January 23, 2026, surveyed 10,133 respondents across all 16 regions and 272 constituencies, using computer-assisted telephone interviews.
The poll carried a confidence level of 99.9% with a margin of error of ±1.57%.
Another major poll by Africa Policy Lens (APL) similarly projected Bawumia as the likely winner, placing him at 61%, with Kennedy Agyapong at 25.1%. APL’s research covered all 276 constituencies, reaching 9,122 respondents between December 8, 2025, and January 23, 2026.
A third poll by CenPOA suggested a tighter contest but still placed Bawumia in the lead with 42%, compared to 34% for Kennedy Agyapong.
In addition, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung post-election report indicated that a plurality of NPP grassroots supporters — 48.7% — preferred Dr. Bawumia to lead the party into the 2028 elections.
Together, these projections have strengthened the narrative that tomorrow may indeed be “Bawumia’s day.”
Conflicting Surveys And The Kennedy Factor
Despite the strong polling advantage enjoyed by the former Vice President, not all surveys have aligned with the same outcome.
Some organisations, including the Sanity Africa Poll and a survey attributed to Dr. Evans Duah, have projected Kennedy Agyapong as the likely winner, placing him at around 52%, with Bawumia trailing between 36% and 40%.
These conflicting projections have fueled uncertainty and reinforced the competitive nature of the race, particularly given Kennedy Agyapong’s reputation for grassroots mobilisation and his outsider appeal to sections of the party base demanding a more confrontational political style.
Agyapong, a wealthy businessman and outspoken politician, has positioned himself as the anti-establishment candidate — one who can shake up the party’s traditional hierarchy.
Prophecies Enter The Political Battlefield
Adding an extraordinary dimension to the contest has been the growing role of religious prophecy.
JoyNews Research has tracked at least 11 prophecies connected to the NPP primary. Out of these, eight reportedly predict victory for Dr. Bawumia, while three forecast a win for Kennedy Agyapong.
Prophet Bohyeba has claimed Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will sweep victory in 10 regions, while Prophet William Braham has described him as the “spiritually chosen candidate” for 2028.
However, Prophet Bernard Elbernard Nelson-Eshun of Spiritlife Revival Ministries has publicly insisted that Kennedy Agyapong will emerge victorious, declaring that he is placing his 27 years of prophetic ministry on the line. He even suggested that Agyapong will annex 52% of the votes.
Mussa Dankwah Pushes Back
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwah has strongly dismissed the notion that prophecy can override electoral reality.
Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen, Dankwah argued that elections are ultimately determined by the will of the people, not spiritual declarations.
“I don’t think a prophecy can change an outcome. The voice of the people is the voice of God,” he said, explaining that his organisation’s methodology is based on random sampling of delegates, with no manipulation.
Profiles of the Aspirants: Who Are They?
Tomorrow’s ballot features five prominent contenders, each representing different traditions within the NPP.
Dr. Bawumia enters the race as the most nationally recognised figure, having served as Vice President from 2017 to 2025 and having been the party’s 2024 presidential candidate.
Kennedy Agyapong brings business credibility, populist energy, and strong grassroots enthusiasm, particularly among party activists seeking a more aggressive campaigner.
Dr. Bryan Acheampong, a former security minister, has positioned himself as a strategic organiser with deep party networks and significant resources.
Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, the former Education Minister, appeals to technocratic delegates and those impressed by education reforms.
Ing. Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, former General Secretary, represents the reformist wing and is seen by some as the only contender outside the direct baggage of the last administration.
Why Supporters Say Bawumia Holds The Advantage
Prominent voices such as journalist Manasseh Azure Awuni have argued that seven major factors favour Bawumia, including his tested national brand, his ability to unify the party, his long political sacrifices, historical patterns of second chances in Ghanaian politics, and his relatively coherent messaging compared to rivals.
Others, including Minority Chief Whip Frank Annoh-Dompreh and MP Samuel Abu Jinapor, have openly endorsed Bawumia as the party’s most electable option for 2028, stressing that the NPP cannot afford an untested gamble if it seeks to return to power.
Tomorrow’s Decision And The Road To 2028
However as delegates vote tomorrow, the NPP faces a defining moment: whether to renew confidence in its most marketed and recognisable candidate, or to turn toward a new direction with an alternative aspirant.
Beyond personalities, the outcome will determine the party’s strategy, unity, and readiness for a fierce contest against President John Dramani Mahama’s NDC in 2028.
