BY Issah Olegor
As the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential race enters the home stretch, fresh data from Global Info Analytics has placed former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in a commanding lead over his rivals.
The findings, released on Friday, January 23, suggest that the opposition party may be heading toward a decisive outcome as it prepares to elect a flagbearer for the 2026 general election on Saturday, January 31, 2026.
The poll, presents Dr. Bawumia as the clear frontrunner in this week’s high-stakes presidential primary. The data suggests a decisive first-round victory, potentially eliminating the need for a runoff.
The projection is based on what Global Info Analytics describes as its final survey and predictive model ahead of the primary.
According to the results, Dr. Bawumia is projected to secure 57 per cent of delegate support, significantly ahead of his closest challenger, Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong, who is forecast to obtain 28 per cent.
Former Minister of Food and Agriculture, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, is projected to receive 13 per cent, while former Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum trails with 2 per cent.
Former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong registers negligible support in the model.
The poll was conducted over nearly a month, from December 29, 2025, to January 23, 2026, reflecting the period of intensified campaigning and internal lobbying within the party.
Global Info Analytics said the survey covered all 16 regions of Ghana and all 272 constituencies, targeting party-aligned respondents likely to influence or participate in the delegate selection process.
In total, 10,133 respondents were interviewed using computer-assisted telephone interviewing, a method the pollster says enhances consistency and reduces interviewer bias.
The sampling approach was based on random probability techniques to ensure regional and demographic balance.
The firm reports a confidence level of 99.9 per cent for the survey, underscoring what it describes as a high level of statistical reliability.
The stated margin of error is ±1.57 per cent for the survey results, while the predictive model carries a wider margin of error of ±3.0 per cent, accounting for late shifts in delegate preferences and campaign dynamics.
The latest figures come against the backdrop of a highly competitive and, at times, contentious NPP internal race. Since the party’s loss in the 2024 general elections, the contest to lead the party into a new electoral cycle has been marked by sharp exchanges among contenders, contrasting campaign styles, and debates over the party’s future direction.
Dr. Bawumia, who served as Vice President for two terms, has campaigned on experience, continuity, and reform, while Kennedy Agyapong has positioned himself as a populist and outspoken alternative with strong grassroots appeal.
Despite the intense rhetoric, the Global Info Analytics model suggests that Dr. Bawumia’s national profile, prior exposure to nationwide campaigns, and perceived acceptability among party delegates continue to give him a decisive advantage as voting day approaches.
With just days to the January 31 primary, the final poll is likely to shape expectations within the party, even as NPP officials and candidates caution supporters that the ultimate decision rests with delegates on the day of voting.
The outcome of the primary is expected to set the tone for the party’s reorganisation and strategy ahead of the next general election cycle.
