BY Issah Olegor
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is expected to maintain a restrictive monetary stance in the first half of 2026, signaling a cautious approach to interest rates as the country navigates inflationary pressures and potential economic shocks.
According to an analysis by IC Securities, a leading market research firm, the central bank is likely to sustain a double-digit real policy rate throughout the first half of the year.
The firm highlighted that this approach is aimed at mitigating the risk of a second-round inflationary effect following recent tariff hikes on key commodities.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the BoG concluded its final meeting of 2025 in November by reducing the policy rate by 350 basis points to 18.0%.
The reduction, while substantial, fell slightly below the maximum projected cut of 400 basis points.
IC Securities noted that this “deep, yet cautious” adjustment reflects the MPC’s preference for keeping real interest rates in double digits, continuing the rate-cutting cycle that began in July 2025.
Before the November meeting, the real policy rate stood at 13.5%, which fell to 10.0% post-cut.
Analysts interpret this move as maintaining a very restrictive monetary environment, signaling that the BoG is prioritizing inflation containment over aggressive economic stimulus.
Looking ahead to 2026, IC Securities anticipates that the double-digit real policy rate will persist through the first half of the year, aligning with the government’s broader economic objectives.
“Monetary easing will be cautious and conditional on continued macroeconomic stability, and the Bank stands ready to act swiftly should inflationary risks resurface,” the analysis concluded, echoing statements from the 2026 budget presentation.
Historically, the BoG has navigated a delicate balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation.
Following the 2025 rate adjustments, the central bank’s approach underscores its commitment to maintaining price stability while carefully managing the pace of economic expansion in a post-tariff hike environment.
