BY Issah Olegor
Fitch Solutions, a UK-based economic and financial research firm, has projected a modest weakening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar in the final quarter of 2025.
However, it maintains that the local currency will close the year stronger overall — a rare and historic turnaround for a currency long plagued by volatility and depreciation pressures.
The cedi, which has gained over 29% against the US dollar in the retail market since January, currently trades at GH¢12.00 to a dollar at the forex bureau and GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.
This marks one of its most impressive performances in recent history, fueled by improved foreign exchange inflows, stable macroeconomic conditions, and proactive interventions from the Bank of Ghana (BoG).
Fitch Solutions noted that while the cedi may experience slight weakness in the closing months of the year, the overall trend points toward stability and resilience.
“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through quarter 4, 2025 and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date. Indeed, we anticipate only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria naira and South Africa rand by the end of 2025,” the report stated.
Despite the projected short-term softness, Fitch forecasts only an 8% depreciation of the cedi by the end of 2026, with the currency expected to settle at GH¢11.70 per dollar on the interbank market.
The firm described this as a “modest” movement compared to the steep declines recorded during the volatile years of 2023 and 2024, when the cedi lost significant value due to global economic shocks, debt restructuring pressures, and inflationary spikes.
According to Fitch Solutions, Ghana’s relatively stable outlook is being supported by several factors, including strong gold prices, anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions that continue to push investors toward commodities.
The report highlighted that elevated gold earnings have helped Ghana build stronger foreign reserves, which have in turn boosted confidence in the local currency.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” Fitch Solutions added.
It further emphasized that “continued softness in the US dollar and robust risk appetite for emerging market currencies” would serve as tailwinds for Sub-Saharan African forex markets.
Ghana, one of the world’s top gold producers, has benefited immensely from the surge in gold prices, which has helped cushion its foreign exchange position.
Combined with a gradual improvement in fiscal discipline, external debt restructuring progress, and BoG’s market interventions, the cedi has managed to hold its ground for most of 2025.
However, Fitch cautioned that the Bank of Ghana’s continuous interventions, though stabilizing in the short term, may limit the extent of the cedi’s appreciation.
The report stressed the need to balance currency gains with export competitiveness, ensuring that a stronger cedi does not harm Ghana’s export sector, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.
The projection comes as Ghana’s economic managers continue to work under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, rebuilding reserves, and managing inflation, which has steadily declined from its record highs in 2023.
In summary, while the final quarter of 2025 may bring slight fluctuations, Fitch Solutions’ outlook suggests that the currency is entering a period of relative calm and resilience — a remarkable shift from the turbulence of previous years.
