BY Issah Olegor
The government is poised to achieve better-than-targeted outcomes for all its macro targets in 2025, according to a report by IC Research.
The economic and financial outfit’s assessment is based on impressive performances in key macroeconomic indicators in the first half of 2025.
The indicators that have shown significant improvement include inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, real GDP growth, and gross international reserves.
The budget execution for half-year 2025 delivered strong performances with a sizable fiscal adjustment outperforming the authorities’ target and IC Research’s estimates for the period.
Fiscal Data Review
IC Research’s review of the fiscal data indicates a renewed commitment to spending controls and non-accumulation of arrears amid a largely satisfactory tax revenue outturn.
Although total revenue fell short of the half-year 2025 target by 3.2% at GH¢99.3 billion, it beat IC Research’s estimate by 8.3% due to intensified tax compliance.
Revenue Performance
Total revenue surged despite disappointing customs and non-tax revenue collections.
Customs collection underperformed the target by GH¢1.6 billion, attributed to systemic revenue leakages at key ports and smuggling of goods across land borders.
Non-tax revenue also fell short of the target by GH¢2.4 billion, mainly reflecting lower-than-expected revenue collections by state agencies.
Positive Outlook
The strong half-year 2025 delivery on key targets has significantly eased concerns about the near-term fiscal outlook.
The fiscal authorities have identified key risks to the 2025 budget execution and outlined mitigation measures, some of which are credible mitigants.
