BY NADIA NTIAMOAH
Motorists and other petroleum consumers could face a sharp increase in fuel prices from Thursday, October 1, 2026, with diesel expected to record the biggest adjustment, according to projections by the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC).
COPEC is projecting a 22.91% increase in diesel prices, alongside a 5.21% rise in petrol prices, for the first pricing window of October.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, September 29, and signed by its Executive Secretary, Duncan Amoah, COPEC attributed the anticipated increases mainly to higher international petroleum prices and a marginal depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar.
Under the projection, the average retail price of petrol is expected to rise from GH¢16.90 to GH¢17.78 per litre, while diesel could increase from GH¢18.24 to GH¢22.42 per litre.
The projected movement in diesel prices is significantly larger than the expected adjustment for petrol.
COPEC said the international Free on Board (FOB) price of diesel increased from $1,404.73 to $1,524.22 per metric tonne, representing an 8.51% increase during the relevant pricing window.
Based on its calculations, COPEC expects diesel pump prices to fall within a range of GH¢19.40 and GH¢21.44 per litre, applying a ±5% margin to its projection.
The projected increase could have wider implications for transport operators and businesses that depend heavily on diesel-powered vehicles and machinery if the expected adjustment is reflected at the pumps.
Petrol is also expected to record an upward adjustment, although the projected increase is considerably smaller than that of diesel.
COPEC said the FOB price of petrol rose by 4.26%, moving from $1,251.07 to $1,304.39 per metric tonne.
The Chamber consequently projects an average retail price of GH¢17.78 per litre, up from the current GH¢16.90.
Within its projected ±5% range, COPEC expects petrol prices to trade between GH¢16.89 and GH¢18.67 per litre.
COPEC identified the movement in global crude oil prices as one of the main factors behind the anticipated fuel price increases.
According to the Chamber, the average international crude oil price rose substantially during the pricing window, increasing from $103.07 to $124 per barrel.
The increase in global crude prices has a direct bearing on the cost of petroleum products imported into Ghana, contributing to upward pressure on domestic pump prices.
At the same time, the Ghana cedi recorded a marginal depreciation against the US dollar.
COPEC said the average interbank exchange rate moved from GH¢11.4830 to GH¢11.6211 per US dollar, representing a depreciation of approximately 1.20%.
Since petroleum products are largely traded internationally in US dollars, movements in the exchange rate can affect the cedi cost of imported fuel.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is also expected to become more expensive under COPEC’s projection. The Chamber said the international FOB price of LPG increased from $712.43 to $777.59 per metric tonne.
That represents a significant increase in the international cost of the product and has led COPEC to project a retail price of GH¢15.68 per kilogramme.
