By Daniel Bampoe
With less than two weeks to the New Patriotic Party (NPP) crucial presidential primary, the contest to lead the party into the 2028 general election has entered its decisive phase, marked by intense campaigning, internal tensions, and a sharply divided delegate base.
The January 31, 2026 primary will determine who succeeds former President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo as the party’s next presidential standard-bearer, following the NPP’s loss of power in the 2024 general elections.
Although five candidates are officially in the race, political observers and party insiders increasingly describe the contest as a straight duel between former Vice-President and 2024 flag bearer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and former Assin Central Member of Parliament, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
Interestingly, Dr Bawumia has so far received the massive endorsement across the country on his campaign trail as he is expected to complete the 276 regions by next week.
Dr Bawumia is currently in the Ashanti Region where he rounding up the final lap.
Some of his opponents are also winding up their campaigns with staged endorsements.
Dr Bryan Acheampong says he has so far completed the 276 constituencies and he is currently embarking on the second phase tour starting from Greater Accra, and combining the constituencies.
A Contest Shaped By Party History
The NPP has a long tradition of competitive but consequential internal contests, with past primaries often reshaping the party’s ideological direction and electoral fortunes.
From John Agyekum Kufuor’s emergence in the late 1990s to Akufo-Addo’s consolidation of party dominance between 2008 and 2016, flagbearer elections have frequently reflected deeper struggles between party structures and grassroots sentiment.
In the current race, those underlying dynamics are once again at play. Dr. Bawumia is widely perceived as the establishment candidate, having served two terms as Vice-President and led the party into the 2024 election.
His candidacy enjoys the backing of key party figures, former government appointees, and segments of the party hierarchy that value continuity, experience, and technocratic governance.
Kennedy Agyapong, a maverick politician by contrast, has positioned himself as an insider-outsider—a long-serving party financier and former MP who openly challenges party orthodoxy.
Known for his blunt rhetoric and populist appeal, Kennedy Agyapong has built a loyal following among delegates who believe the party needs a dramatic break from its recent leadership style following the 2024 defeat.
Campaign Atmosphere: Warm Receptions, Sharp Attacks
As both leading contenders crisscross constituencies, they are often met with enthusiastic receptions from party delegates.
However, seasoned political analysts caution that Ghanaian political culture tends to reward visiting aspirants with hospitality that does not always translate into votes at the ballot box.
The campaign has also been characterised by increasingly sharp rhetoric, particularly directed at Dr. Bawumia.
Several rival camps have openly questioned his leadership credentials, economic record, and role in the NPP’s 2024 loss, resulting in sustained criticism from multiple fronts.
Supporters of the former Vice-President argue that this pattern suggests a coordinated effort to weaken the perceived frontrunner as the race tightens.
Polls Paint A Divided Picture
Scientific polling has further highlighted the competitiveness of the race, though results remain contradictory.
Surveys by Global InfoAnalytics and Africa Policy Lens have consistently placed Dr. Bawumia in the lead, with projected support ranging between 60 and 70 percent among likely delegates.
Conversely, a Sanity Africa Delegates Survey released in late 2025 suggested Kennedy Agyapong held a narrow advantage, with over 50 percent support compared to Dr. Bawumia’s high-30s showing.
These conflicting figures have allowed both camps to selectively cite data that reinforces their confidence, underscoring how finely balanced the contest has become.
The Wider Field and Strategic Implications
Other contenders, including Dr. Bryan Acheampong, Ing Kwabena Agyei Agyapong, and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, remain active on the campaign trail but trail significantly in delegate support, typically polling in single digits.
While their chances of outright victory appear slim, their performance could influence the final outcome by reshaping alliances and delegate calculations.
The ballot order has also drawn attention, with Kennedy Agyapong occupying the first position and Dr. Bawumia listed third—a factor some campaigners believe may have a marginal psychological effect on voting day.
Unity Test After January 31
Beyond the immediate question of who wins, party elders are increasingly focused on the post-primary challenge of unity.
With emotions running high and camps deeply entrenched, the behaviour of both the winner and the defeated candidates will be critical in determining whether the NPP can quickly regroup and present a united front against the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Former President Akufo-Addo’s long-held view that “the most important poll is election day” has been frequently cited by party stalwarts urging restraint, fairness, and acceptance of the final outcome.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia: The Frontrunner
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia enters the contest with unmatched name recognition within the NPP, having served two terms as Vice-President (2017–2025) and led the party into the 2024 general election.
His political rise mirrors the NPP’s post-2008 reorganisation, similar to how Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo consolidated the party after earlier defeats.
Supporters argue that Dr Bawumia represents experience, policy depth, and national exposure, citing his economic background, digitalisation agenda, and international visibility.
His candidacy is also seen as appealing to the party’s traditional strongholds in Ashanti, Eastern Region, and increasingly Zongo communities, where the NPP improved its vote share from 30% in 2020 to about 40% in 2024.
Critics within the party, however, continue to link him to the NPP’s 2024 loss, arguing that a fresh face may be required to rebrand the party ahead of 2028.
Kennedy Agyapong: The Anti-Establishment Insider
Kennedy Agyapong’s campaign draws strength from grassroots frustration and a growing sentiment that the NPP must undergo a radical reset.
Though a long-time party financier and former MP, Agyapong has successfully branded himself as an anti-establishment disruptor, openly criticising party leadership, and what he describes as political complacency.
His appeal resonates strongly in parts of Central, Western, and Greater Accra Regions, as well as among delegates who believe blunt honesty and populist energy are required to confront the ruling NDC in 2028.
His establishment of an “anti-rigging taskforce” has further galvanised supporters who fear internal manipulation.
However, some senior party figures express concern about his confrontational style, questioning whether it broadens or narrows the NPP’s national appeal.
Regional Balance And Strategic Calculations
Regional considerations remain central to the decision-making process of delegates.
Historically, successful NPP candidates combine overwhelming support in the Ashanti Region with competitiveness in Greater Accra, Eastern (where Bryan Acheampong hails from), and swing regions such as Central and Western North.
Bawumia’s camp believes his national exposure and improved performance in northern and Zongo communities make him best placed to expand the party’s electoral map.
Kennedy Agyapong’s supporters counter that his populist appeal can recapture disillusioned urban voters and energise the base in regions where the party underperformed in 2024.
Public Expectations
Beyond internal dynamics, public expectations loom large. After eight years in government and a bruising defeat, many voters expect the NPP to demonstrate renewal, humility, and strategic clarity.
The delegates are therefore weighing not just popularity within the party, but electability against the NDC and its likely 2028 candidate.
Who Leads as Decision Day Nears?
As of mid-January 2026, Dr. Bawumia remains the statistical frontrunner across most aggregate polls, while Kennedy Agyapong commands strong momentum and emotional loyalty among a significant bloc of delegates.
With contradictory surveys, passionate supporters on both sides, and the famously unpredictable delegate politics, the race remains too close to call.
By the evening of January 31, the NPP will have its answer. The greater challenge, however, will come after the votes are counted—healing divisions, restoring public confidence, and positioning the party for a credible return to power in 2028.
