By Daniel Bampoe
Tanzania, once hailed as one of the most stable democracies in Africa, is teetering on the brink of political crisis. As the country prepares to conclude its most contentious general elections in decades, deep divisions between the mainland (Tanganyika) and the semi-autonomous islands of Zanzibar have resurfaced, reigniting fears of a fractured union and widespread unrest.
Election Sparks
What began as a test of democracy has morphed into a confrontation between two historic identities—Tanganyika and Zanzibar. The controversy surrounding the presidency of Samia Suluhu Hassan, who hails from Zanzibar, has reawakened old grievances buried since the 1964 union that formed the United Republic of Tanzania.
According to the founding principles of the union, Zanzibar retained its own government, parliament, and judiciary while sending representatives to the union government. In practice, however, power has always been balanced through an unwritten understanding: if the president of the union comes from the mainland, the vice president comes from Zanzibar, and vice versa.
That equilibrium broke in 2021 after the sudden death of President John Pombe Magufuli, a mainlander. His deputy, Samia Suluhu Hassan, was constitutionally next in line, but her ascension violated the traditional mainland-Zanzibar power arrangement. The move, though legal, left many mainlanders feeling politically sidelined.
Suluhu’s Presidency
President Suluhu’s early months in office were marked by efforts to stabilize the economy and rebuild ties with international donors following Magufuli’s isolationist policies. But her political maneuvers—particularly the replacement of key mainland officials with loyalists—fueled claims that she was “Zanzibaring” the state.
As the 2025 elections approached, this perception hardened into resentment. Opposition leader Tundu Lissu of CHADEMA emerged as the rallying voice for those who felt disenfranchised. His campaign resonated deeply across the mainland, where he accused Suluhu’s government of turning Tanzania into “a union in name, but a Zanzibari empire in practice.”
Election Day Chaos
The October polls have been marred by violence, arrests, and censorship. Reports indicate that security forces launched preemptive crackdowns in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha to prevent mass protests. The internet was shut down on election day, and several opposition leaders were detained.
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), in power since independence, has been accused of manipulating results in Zanzibar and certain mainland regions to favor President Suluhu’s reelection bid. International observers, including local civic groups, have described the vote as “lacking transparency and fairness.”
South Africa’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) issued a strong condemnation, accusing the CCM government of “state-sponsored intimidation and the violent suppression of democracy.” The EFF urged the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to intervene to prevent “a total collapse of political order” in Tanzania.
Protests Spread Across
What began as isolated demonstrations in Dar es Salaam quickly spread to other regions. In Arusha and Mbeya, protesters blocked major roads, while in Dodoma, crowds marched towards government offices demanding the release of detained activists.
Some of the unrest has turned destructive. Properties belonging to prominent CCM figures and their allies have been vandalized, and angry mobs have reportedly targeted homes of government sympathizers, including popular musicians and influencers perceived to support the regime.
The police have responded with force—firing tear gas, making mass arrests, and imposing overnight curfews. Still, thousands remain defiant, accusing the government of stealing their votes and betraying the democratic legacy of Julius Nyerere.
The Shadow Of Magufuli
The memory of the late John Magufuli looms large over the crisis. Many Tanzanians recall his era as one of pride, economic nationalism, and unity—despite his controversial authoritarian streak. Magufuli’s supporters argue that his unexpected death in 2021 and Suluhu’s rise marked the beginning of Tanzania’s political unraveling.
“When Magufuli was alive, Tanzania felt united,” said a political analyst in Dar es Salaam who requested anonymity. “Today, people see two governments—Zanzibar’s and Samia’s—and none representing the mainland.”
The opposition has seized on this sentiment, portraying the current unrest as a struggle for the “soul of Tanganyika.”
Regional Diplomacy And Mediation Attempts
Sources indicate that former President Jakaya Kikwete is currently in Kenya, holding quiet discussions with President William Ruto and former leader Uhuru Kenyatta. The talks reportedly focus on regional mediation to avert further escalation.
Kenya, with its history of electoral violence and reconciliation, is seen as a neutral actor capable of guiding Tanzania back to dialogue. However, analysts warn that without genuine reform, any short-term peace will be fragile.
President Suluhu faces her toughest challenge yet: convincing the mainland that she represents all Tanzanians, not just Zanzibar. For the opposition, the question is how to push for democratic reforms without tearing apart the very union that defines the nation.
