By Grace Zigah
Consumers across Ghana are expected to pay more for petroleum products from May 16, 2026, as global crude oil prices continue to rise despite ongoing government interventions aimed at cushioning the impact on consumers.
The projected increase was disclosed by the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr. Riverson Oppong, who indicated that fuel prices are likely to go up under both possible policy scenarios currently being considered by government.
According to him, the current government intervention programme designed to stabilize fuel prices is expected to expire on May 16, but even an extension of the policy may not be enough to prevent increases at the pumps.
Speaking to Joy Business, Dr. Oppong explained that under the first scenario, where government decides to extend the intervention programme, petrol prices could still rise by between 2.5 and 3 percent per litre.
This, he said, could push petrol prices to approximately GH¢14.50 per litre, while diesel prices may increase by about 1.8 percent to around GH¢16.50 per litre.
He explained that extending the policy would only reduce the scale of the expected increases rather than eliminate them completely.
Under the second scenario, if government allows the intervention programme to expire without renewal, the impact on consumers could be significantly higher.
Dr. Oppong projected that petrol prices could jump to about GH¢15.80 per litre, while diesel may sell for as high as GH¢18.05 per litre.
The latest projections come amid growing concerns over renewed instability in the global oil market, triggered largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Reports suggesting a possible resumption of United States military strikes on Iran have already pushed international crude oil prices upward, with crude reportedly trading at about $107 per barrel.
Analysts warn that sustained increases in crude oil prices could worsen transportation costs, utility expenses, and general inflationary pressures in Ghana’s economy in the coming months.
The development also comes at a time when Ghana recently recorded a marginal increase in inflation from 3.2 percent in March to 3.4 percent in April 2026, driven partly by increases in utility costs, rent, and other non-food items.
Dr. Oppong further cautioned against assumptions that importing petroleum products from Nigeria for local refining would automatically translate into cheaper fuel prices in Ghana.
According to him, there must be a distinction between product availability and pricing at the pumps, insisting that availability alone does not guarantee lower market prices.
On liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), he explained that pricing trends would largely depend on prevailing stock levels and supply conditions in the market.
Over the past few years, government has intermittently introduced policy measures and pricing interventions aimed at mitigating the impact of rising global crude oil prices and exchange rate volatility on domestic fuel prices.
However, fuel pricing in Ghana remains heavily influenced by international crude oil movements, exchange rate fluctuations, taxes, levies, and distribution margins.
Despite the expected increases, international financial institutions including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Fitch Ratings have maintained projections that Ghana could still end 2026 with inflation remaining within single-digit levels.
The anticipated fuel price adjustments are nevertheless expected to place additional pressure on households, transport operators, and businesses already grappling with rising operational costs and broader economic challenges.
