–BY Issah Olegor
Ghana’s efforts to rein in its ballooning public debt appear to be gaining traction, as the African Development Bank (AfDB) projects a modest decline in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to just under 60% by December 2025.
This projection is outlined in the AfDB’s 2025 African Economic Outlook report, which signals cautious optimism for Ghana’s fiscal health despite lingering vulnerabilities.
This expected improvement represents a slight reduction from the 61.8% recorded in 2024, suggesting that Ghana is making incremental progress in stabilizing its public finances after years of economic turbulence.
The move toward fiscal consolidation comes on the back of multiple domestic and international interventions, including a controversial debt restructuring programme and an ongoing $3 billion IMF-backed reform plan.
According to data released by the Bank of Ghana in its May 2025 Summary of Economic and Financial Data, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio was already estimated at 55% as of April 2025.
However, this figure fluctuated slightly in recent months, from 53.7% in January to 54.9% in February, reflecting the challenges in maintaining consistent downward momentum.
Ghana’s total public debt currently stands at approximately GH¢769.4 billion, or about US$49.5 billion.
The debt burden remains a central concern for policymakers, especially as global financing conditions tighten and local revenue mobilization continues to lag.
The AfDB’s broader regional outlook also places Ghana’s experience in continental context.
Of the 54 African economies assessed, only 15 have successfully brought their debt ratios below pre-pandemic levels.
Angola, for example, recorded the steepest decline in 2024, slashing its debt-to-GDP ratio by an extraordinary 42.1 percentage points, followed closely by São Tomé and Príncipe, which saw a 40 percentage-point drop.
Despite progress in many countries, including Ghana, the AfDB cautioned that debt-related risks persist across the continent.
It noted that while Africa has largely avoided a full-blown systemic debt crisis, vulnerabilities remain elevated due to high interest rates and weakening currencies.
These factors continue to drive up the cost of debt servicing, especially for countries—like Ghana—that have significant exposure to commercial debt.
These structural challenges suggest that while the downward trend in debt ratios is encouraging, it remains fragile and dependent on sustained policy discipline and favorable external conditions.
Ghana’s road to debt sustainability has been rocky.
After defaulting on portions of its external debt in 2022 amid economic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country underwent a painful domestic debt exchange programme in early 2023.
This was followed by months of negotiations with bilateral and multilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework.
