BY ISSAH OLEGOR
Yields on Ghana’s Treasury bills could come under moderate upward pressure in the second half of 2026 as the government balances efforts to contain borrowing costs against rising financing requirements, according to Databank Research.
The financial market research firm projects that the 91-day Treasury bill could trade within a range of 5.5% to 7.5%, while the 364-day bill is expected to trade between 12.5% and 14.0% during the period.
The forecast represents a potential increase from current market levels, with the 91-day and 364-day Treasury bills presently yielding around 4.9% and 10%, respectively.
In its 2026 Half-Year Report, Databank Research said the outlook would be shaped by two competing forces: the Treasury’s efforts to contain financing costs and higher funding requirements associated with upcoming government obligations.
It noted that active yield management by the Treasury could prevent sharp repricing in the market, although increased financing needs could still place moderate upward pressure on interest rates.
GH¢10.8bn DDEP coupon payment to boost liquidity
Databank Research expects domestic liquidity conditions to remain broadly supportive during the second half of the year.
A major factor is the GH¢10.8 billion coupon payment under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), due in August 2026, which is expected to inject additional liquidity into the financial system.
The research firm said banks, pension funds and collective investment schemes are expected to reinvest part of the funds, helping sustain demand for government securities.
Such reinvestment, it said, should support Treasury bill auction coverage and activity in the secondary market, particularly during the third quarter of 2026.
However, the liquidity boost could lose some momentum later in the year as increased government and corporate borrowing absorbs excess funds within the financial system.
Databank Research also expects the government to gradually build on its return to the domestic bond market through targeted medium- and long-term debt issuances.
According to Databank Research, the government is expected to build the fund from its current GH¢15.6 billion position towards a GH¢30 billion year-end target.
The move is intended to strengthen the government’s financial buffers ahead of significant DDEP-related maturities expected from 2027.
Despite periodic moderation in participation, investor appetite for Ghanaian government securities remained strong during the first half of 2026.
Total bids increased by 94.1% year-on-year to GH¢234.86 billion, highlighting the continued demand for government securities.
Databank Research said average target-cover and bid-to-cover ratios of 1.10 times and 1.39 times, respectively, reflected healthy demand at government securities auctions.
